sábado, 31 de maio de 2014

Explicação sucinta das origens da “Crise Financeira”

Brief explanation about the Financial Crisis.



No caso de estar alguém ainda, no escuro, à procura das causas da crise financeira, escusam de queimar mais neurónios. Aqui se apresenta sucinta e interessante explicação.
Ninguém sabe ao certo onde nasceram estas versões mas quem quer que tenha juntado esta sequencia merece um grande aplauso pela explicação simples de algo que tentam pintar de complexo.
Naturalmente que existem mais detalhes à volta da onda da crise mas, mesmo assim, vale a pena visitar a cratera originária. E de original estes “Esquemas Ponzi” tem pouco – não passando de esquemas de curto prazo que, quando rebentam, distribuem estragos a longo prazo.


E vamos então à explicação da origem da “Crise Financeira” (versão Brasileira):

"O seu José tem um bar, na Vila Carrapato, e decide que vai vender cachaça “na caderneta” (1) aos seus leais fregueses, todos bêbados e quase todos desempregados.
Porque decidiu vender a crédito, ele pode aumentar um pouquinho o preço da dose da branquinha (2) (a diferença é o sobrepreço que os pinguços (3) pagam pelo crédito) e ter um lucro maior.
O gerente do banco do seu José, um ousado administrador formado em curso de Administração e com MBA (4), decide que as cadernetas das dívidas do bar constituem, afinal, um ativo recebível, e começa a adiantar dinheiro ao boteco (5) tendo a pindura (6) dos pinguços como garantia.
Mais adiante, alguns executivos do banco lastreiam (7) os tais recebíveis (8) e os transformam em CDB, CDO, CCD, UTI, OVNI, SOS (9) ou qualquer outra sigla financeira que ninguém sabe exatamente o que quer dizer.
Esses adicionais instrumentos financeiros, alavancam o mercado de capitais e conduzem a operações estruturadas de derivativos, na BM&F (Bolsa de Mercadoria e de Futuros), cujo lastro inicial todo mundo desconhece (as tais cadernetas do seu José).
Mais adiante, esses derivativos estão sendo negociados como se fossem títulos sérios, com fortes garantias reais, nos mercados de 73 países.
Até que alguém descobre que os bêbados desempregados da Vila Carrapato não têm dinheiro para pagar as contas, e o Bar do seu José vai à falência.
E toda a cadeia financeira se desmorona."


(1) – Livro de créditos concedidos / Livro-Razão.
(2) – Aguardente.
(3) – Bêbados.
(4) – Master Business Administration.
(5) – Tasca.
(6) – Divida.
(7) – Dão peso e forma.
(8) – Dividas.
 (9) – Derivados financeiros transaccionáveis em Bolsa..



But there is Greek version too, written in English

(text and photo from unknown sources)
. And here it goes:


 ”Joana is the proprietor of a taverna in Greece. She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed Greek alcoholics and as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar. To solve this problem she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later.
Joana keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers’ “loans”).
Word soon gets around about Joana’s “drink now, pay later” marketing strategy and as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Joana’s bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume (but no actual money) for any bar in town.
By providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands Joana gets no resistance or complaint when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer – the most commonly consumed beverages.
Consequently, Joana’s gross sales volumes and paper profits increase massively.
A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Joana’s borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral…
He is rewarded with a six figure bonus for being a clever little banker.
At the bank’s corporate headquarters in Athens, expert traders figure a way to make huge commissions, and transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS. These “securities” are then bundled and traded on international securities markets in Paris, Madrid, Berlin and Rome.

Naive investors who buy into these DRINKBONDS don’t really understand that the securities being sold to them as “AA Secured Bonds” are really debts of unemployed alcoholics. Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb and the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the leading brokerage houses across Europe including London.
The traders all receive a six figure bonus.

One day, even though the bond prices are still climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank in Greece decides that the time has come to demand some kind of payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Joana’s bar. He therefore informs Joana. Joana is in turn then obliged to demand payment from her alcoholic patrons but, being unemployed alcoholics, they cannot pay back their drinking debts. Since Joana cannot fulfill her loan obligations to her local bank she is forced into bankruptcy. The bar closes and Joana’s 11 employees lose their jobs.

Overnight, DRINKBOND prices drop by 90%. The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank’s liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community. This contagion rapidly spreads upwards to the parent bank in Athens and the bank collapses.

These local and national financiers of Joana’s bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms’ pension funds in the DRINKBOND securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt a losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds. Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations; her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local brewery and lays off 150 workers.

Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multibillion Euro no-strings attached cash infusion from the government in Berlin.

All these bankers and brokers involved in the “Rescue Plan “receive a six figure bonus.

The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who’ve never been in Joana’s bar. Most of them don’t even live in Greece.”



Penso que ficou percebido!

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